Live Grand Prize evidence board · updated 2026-10-04

Road to the 2027 Grand Prize

ScrolIQ is not counting commits toward a prize. It is tracking the evidence required to turn an exact Herculaneum CT volume into a complete, reproducible, VC3D-compatible, held-out-validated virtual unrolling. Every stage stays measured, partial, unknown, or blocked until the evidence exists.

ScrolIQ = evidence + evaluation layer zarr-pyramid-audit = input-integrity dependency No readiness score from unknown stages
01 · Prize contract

Road to 2027 Grand Prize

Six requirements that matter for a qualifying end-to-end result. States describe evidence, not optimism.
GP-01
100% recto surface recovered on one exact eligible scroll
Blocked

No exact 2027 Grand Prize volume currently has a ScrolIQ-backed whole-scroll recto segmentation/unroll. Detached or broken patches are not yet closed out either.

Needed: exact-volume surface prediction → held-out validation → complete coverage accounting.
GP-02
Column-scale TIFXYZ meshes with low-distortion flattening
Partial

Native TIFXYZ/OBJ auditing, isometry checks, self-cross binding, flattening comparison, package hashing, and column traceability exist. A complete sequential column set does not.

GP-03
Ink renders with visible, letter-by-letter legible text
Partial

Leakage audits, held-out ink scoring, falsification controls, legibility interfaces, and submission-image traceability exist. No full-scroll sequence of qualifying readable column renders exists yet.

GP-04
No train/prediction overlap + blind held-out validation
Ready to test

scroliq-eval provides model/dataset/result contracts, checkpoint and code hashing, overlap blocking, fixed seeds, region-level failures, and deterministic 95% bootstrap CIs. scroliq-segmentation-validate now adds blind TIFXYZ surface scoring with a salted frozen-truth commitment.

Ink/geometry adapters and real blind community benchmark runs remain next; no model is promoted from infrastructure alone.
GP-05
Seamless VC3D integration and inspectable geometry
Partial

ScrolIQ reads native TIFXYZ, VC3D fiber JSON, PointCollections, upstream self-cross reports, and emits review queues in native coordinates. Winding attachment and ray-order findings can now be exported as VC3D PointCollections with source hashes and finding context. End-to-end automated unrolling inside VC3D is not yet demonstrated.

GP-06
Reproducible pipeline, provenance, Docker, and submission package
Partial

The repo is MIT licensed; CI builds the wheel and reviewer container; exact-source hashes, create-only artifacts, provenance manifests, images, scale-bar rules, and package validation are explicit. The missing piece is reproducing a qualifying full-scroll result.

02 · Consequential changes

What changed this week

Capabilities and falsified assumptions, not commit volume.
OCT 04

Public fibers follow real papyrus on two scrolls

Pre-registered and replicated: PHercParis4 and PHerc0139 fibers sit on dense CT material and run within the sheet plane (median about 3.4° out of plane vs 30° random). Wrong-frame controls passed.

OCT 04

PHerc0813 is off the Grand Prize frontier under v2 sampling

Re-derived from the pre-registered v2 scores, PHerc1447 is the only robust Grand Prize frontier member and PHerc0800 the only robust First Letters member. The segment-free slot is a band within noise.

OCT 04

Fiber gap flags mostly measure fallback rendering

Pre-registered and SUPPORTED with controls passing: 101 / 502 fallback spans vs 2 / 5,001 native spans carry a gap. Only 2 of 388 cues sit in native trace spans.

OCT 04

Every public PHercParis4 fiber audited, with a positive control

136 / 136 fibers, 388 gaps and 519 sharp turns. All 388 gaps fall in fibers that contain fallback-interpolated spans; the 57 fully native fibers have none. Not yet a causal claim.

OCT 03

Blind model evaluation now reaches held-out surface recovery

scroliq-eval provides the fail-closed envelope; scroliq-segmentation-validate adds bidirectional TIFXYZ coverage, exact-distance diagnostics, topology gates, and a salted commitment that freezes private truth before scoring.

03 · Measurements

Numbers that matter

Scientific and prize-facing quantities only. Passing test counts are intentionally omitted.
16,074
cross-collection winding constraints checked
6 flagged for review on PHercParis4
194/200
injected +2 winding errors detected
positive control for the attachment audit
136/136
public PHercParis4 fibers audited
388 gaps, all in fibers with fallback spans
ρ 0.750
pre-registered scan-rank stability v2
below the 0.85 gate → precise ranks retired
2,008
live shards CRC-checked
331 mismatches independently confirmed
0
published blind community-model evaluations
the harness exists; real benchmark runs are next
Why show zero? Because missing evidence is part of the result. ScrolIQ should never turn “not yet measured” into a positive readiness signal.
04 · Evidence history

Evidence timeline

Failures remain visible because they change what the project is allowed to claim.
2026-09-29
zarr-pyramid-audit published
Public MIT fork of sgsllc-jr/zarr-pyramid-audit. First header-only audit of the S3 bucket: 957 roots, 956 clean, one live defect (PHerc0814). zpa becomes the integrity dependency underneath ScrolIQ.
2026-09-30
ScrolIQ created · volcomp content became directly measurable
Vendored libvolcomp decoding made 64 dl.ash2txt.org volcomp volumes content-probeable over HTTP, establishing the first corpus-scale scan-health layer.
2026-10-01
Truly-disjoint stability exposed ranking noise
Two-phase exclusion produced ρ = 0.63 on truly disjoint chunks. Rather than hide the failure, ScrolIQ tightened the experiment and stopped treating close rank positions as precise.
2026-10-01
Winding ray-order audit validated on real geometry
2,166 / 2,232 annotations gained comparable neighbours; only two sub-0.1-voxel inversions appeared among 13,700 comparable pairs. Injection controls established where the detector works and where it does not.
2026-10-02
CRC campaign + stability v2
2,008 live shards were CRC-checked; 331 mismatches emerged. Separately, the preregistered balanced sampling design produced ρ = 0.750, still below the 0.85 stability gate → rank bands stayed.
2026-10-02
Mesh evidence became cross-tool and byte-bound
Same-byte validation against TIFXYZ Doctor reached 10 / 10 agreement on the frozen hole/component benchmark, while external mesh evidence gained coordinate-hash binding instead of name-based trust.
2026-10-03
CRC writer defect independently reproduced
Independent bit-by-bit CRC-32C confirmed the mismatches as real non-conforming writer output. Evidence →
2026-10-03
Winding attachment campaign closed with a working positive control
2,111 / 2,232 points attached; 6 / 16,074 constraints flagged; +2 corruption control detected 194 / 200. Flags remain review cues, not automatic defect verdicts.
2026-10-03
Model evaluation foundation merged
scroliq-eval is now an installed evaluation harness, not scaffolding: versioned model/data/results contracts, checkpoint and code hashing, overlap blocking, deterministic bootstrap CIs, explicit failed regions, and a two-trust-domain blind-evaluation design.
2026-10-04
Fiber census: 136 / 136 public fibers audited
The 8 pinned fibers served as the positive control, and their results were identical to 2026-10-01. 388 gap and 519 sharp-turn candidates; 0 control-line offsets or inversions. Evidence →
2026-10-04
Review queues documented; three upstream drafts ready (unfiled)
One how-to covers all four queues, and the ray-order queue now exports to VC3D. Live rechecks confirm the PHerc0814 headers-without-chunks and the PHerc1447 debug mesh are still published, with the same bytes and the same findings. Guide →
2026-10-04
Ambitions raised: October gains O7–O10, November raised to N1–N9
The fiber span test came back SUPPORTED, so the gap rule mostly measures fallback rendering. Under the v2 frontier PHerc0813 is out and PHerc1447 is the only robust member. The public fibers sit on material in PHercParis4 20260411134726 (AUC 0.775; wrong-frame control passed). Every queue now loads in VC3D. Details →
2026-10-04
Fiber IQ replicated on PHerc0139; span-aware gap rule rejected
411 PHerc0139 fibers audited. CT support (AUC 0.760) and in-plane direction (D 0.414) both replicate PHercParis4 under unchanged frozen designs. The span-aware gap rule did not halve fallback flags on independent data (ratio 0.67), so the current rule stays. Details →
05 · Limiting dependency

Current bottleneck

The one sentence that should change as soon as the project genuinely advances.
Blocks a qualifying result today
No exact 2027 Grand Prize volume has 100% of its recto surface segmented and unrolled into column-scale meshes with full-column legible ink renders.

The highest-leverage next move is therefore not another dashboard metric. It is an exact-volume physical surface campaign that produces held-out surface predictions, validates them against truth without leakage, and then scales the successful geometry into complete recto coverage.

06 · Campaign backlog

October campaigns

No percentage-complete bars. Each item states the evidence state and the remaining dependency.

ScrolIQ · O1–O11 (O7–O11 stretch, raised Oct 4)

O1Mesh IQ: how often are flags real defects?Partial
Blinded sample of 54 segments drawn. VC3D review is still needed before a precision claim exists.
O2Winding IQ: patch attachment & consistencyMeasured
Real-data campaign complete with positive control: 6 / 16,074 constraints flagged; 194 / 200 injected +2 errors detected.
O3Spiral IQ: score a fit on constraints it never sawReady to test
Held-out geometry evaluator exists. The missing input is a real fit/export produced without the evaluation targets.
O4Fiber IQ: whole public corpus, then CT supportPartial
Full public corpus measured: 136 / 136 fibers, positive control passed. Exact-volume CT support with a shifted-fiber control remains open → N4.
O5Stability gate: pass or retire precise ranksMeasured
ρ = 0.750 failed the 0.85 gate. Result accepted; presentation changed to rank bands.
O6Put review queues in reviewers' handsPartial
How-to for all four queues published; ray-order queue exports to VC3D; PHerc0814, PHerc1447 and PHerc0343P drafts ready but unfiled pending maintainer approval → N7.
O7Fiber fallback–gap pattern at span levelMeasured
Pre-registered: SUPPORTED, controls passed. 101 / 502 fallback vs 2 / 5,001 native spans; the gap rule mostly measures rendering density.
O8Prize frontiers under the v2 designMeasured
PHerc0813 leaves both frontiers. Robust members: PHerc1447 (Grand Prize) and PHerc0800 (First Letters). The segment-free slot is a band.
O9Fiber CT volume + CT supportMeasured
No volume is declared; one readable candidate (20260411134726, 2.4 µm). Pre-registered CT test: SUPPORTED (AUC 0.775 vs background; displaced fibers 0.555; wrong-frame control 0.429). Evidence for the binding, not a declaration.
O10Every review queue loads in VC3DDone
Winding attachment, ray order and 388 fiber gap cues as PointCollections, plus the Mesh IQ packet.
O11Fiber IQ goes physical, on two scrollsMeasured
411 PHerc0139 fibers audited. On both scrolls, fibers sit on CT material (AUC 0.775 / 0.760) and run within the sheet plane (median 3.3° / 3.5° out of plane). Span-aware gap rule not adopted.

zarr-pyramid-audit · G1–G7

G1October regression: S3 + dlPartial
S3 rerun complete: 957 roots, 956 clean, PHerc0814 still defective. Full dl regression remains pending.
G2CRC32C validation on live shardsMeasured
2,008 shards checked; 331 mismatches independently reproduced as writer non-conformance.
G3Surface evidence toolsPartial
Target-volume guarding exists. Scope remains subordinate to ScrolIQ's exact-volume surface campaign.
G4Validator comparisonsUnmeasured
No comparative result yet. Keep unknown until a frozen cross-validator campaign exists.
G5Publish-time gate adoptionUnmeasured
Upstream adoption is not evidence until a real publishing workflow consumes the gate.
G6Release hardeningPartial
Core audit behavior is exercised in CI; release hardening remains a distribution task rather than a Grand Prize scientific blocker.
G7Dashboard & docs refreshMeasured
Current evidence and campaign state are published here; scientific claims still trace to committed artifacts rather than the dashboard itself.
06b · Next month

November campaigns

Drafted 2026-10-04, ahead of the month. Full goals and exit criteria: November plan.

Science · N1–N4 (raised Oct 4)

N1Close O1: publish Mesh IQ flag precisionNeeds reviewers
Frozen 54-segment blinded sample; labels must come from human VC3D review. Cutoff Nov 21.
N2Two surface arms on one exact volume, scored blindNot started
Raised: Phase-A sheetness failed, so two independent arms against one frozen truth. Stretch: recto-coverage accounting over a contiguous region.
N3Three community models, one held-out splitReady to test
Raised from one model to three, covering surface and ink, published as a comparison with CIs. Needs model owners' agreement.
N4Fiber IQ: which sheet, and a CT-based gap modelNot started
The old N4 was done in October (O11). Next: same-sheet tracking with a planted sheet-switch control, and gap detection from CT continuity.

Carryover & delivery · N5–N9

N5Close O3: held-out spiral scoreNeeds GPU fit
The evaluator is ready. The missing input is one real fit with declared withheld collections.
N6Surface-support survey of all 13 GP volumesNot started
The old N6 was done in October (O8). A third independent axis is the honest way to break the frontier's segment-free tie.
N7Upstream: file approved reports; dl regressionNeeds approval
Three drafts are ready. Each will be filed only after the maintainer reproduces it and approves.
N8End-to-end submission dry runNot started
Take a non-qualifying N2 output through the container, package, provenance and validator.
N9Outside evidence of useNeeds people
At least two external reviewers return labels, and one approved upstream report is filed.
07 · Reproduce / verify

Do not trust the dashboard

The page is an index. The evidence lives in code, frozen artifacts, hashes, protocols, and containers.
Container

Build the reviewer environment

The repository Dockerfile is exercised by CI with revision labels, non-root execution, installed CLI smoke tests, and pinned dependencies.

Dockerfile →
Prize protocol

Read the proof campaign

The current strategy is explicitly to produce one independently reproducible held-out result on one exact prize-eligible volume before broadening claims.

Grand Prize proof campaign →
Model evaluation

Inspect the blind evaluation contract

Model cards, dataset manifests, per-region outputs, leakage blocking, checkpoint hashes, CIs, and the trusted/untrusted evaluation boundary are documented.

Model evaluation protocol →
Winding evidence

Reproduce the real-data winding campaigns

Ray-order and patch-attachment results are frozen with commands, input identities, controls, and review queues.

Winding attachment artifacts →
Physical surface

Inspect the frozen sheetness preregistration

The PHerc0139 reference campaign freezes geometry-only probes and source provenance before any sheetness result is read.

Sheetness preregistration →
Data integrity

Verify the CRC finding independently

zarr-pyramid-audit's byte-verification artifact demonstrates that the live shard CRC mismatches are not an implementation-specific false alarm.

CRC byte verification →
Submission

Trace meshes, images, hashes, and provenance

Grand Prize package, image, legibility, and provenance contracts define how an eventual qualifying result stays tied to exact source geometry and CT data.

Reviewer map →
Source

Inspect the complete repository

MIT-licensed implementation, tests, dated evidence, command-line interfaces, and current campaign state live in one public repository.

ScrolIQ on GitHub →
Integrity dependency

Audit the CT before trusting downstream evidence

ScrolIQ delegates Zarr structural integrity to zarr-pyramid-audit instead of silently assuming that published volume bytes are trustworthy.

zarr-pyramid-audit →
ScrolIQ's rule: if a number cannot be traced to an exact command, exact inputs, a dated artifact, and a stated limitation or control, it does not graduate into Grand Prize evidence.